FAU Professor Andrea Bréard receives prestigious ERC Advanced Grant for research on statistics in China’s times of crisis
When Professor Dr. Andrea Bréard speaks about China, mathematics, and statistics, it’s never just about numbers. The FAU Vice President uniquely combines sinology and mathematics in her research. Professor Bréard, who is holder of the Chair of Sinology with a focus on Chinese Intellectual and Cultural History has now been awarded a prestigious ERC Advanced Grant, funded with 2.5 million euros, from the European Research Council for her work. Over the next five years, her project “C-STICS” will examine the reciprocal influence of statistics and crises in autocracies, using China as a case study.
Andrea Bréard will likely remember this email for a long time to come. During an online meeting with an FAU colleague, an email pops up in her inbox: New message in the European Research Council (ERC) portal. A few clicks later, it’s clear: The FAU professor is to receive one of the prestigious ERC Advanced Grants, one of the most significant funding awards for cutting-edge research in Europe.
For the holder of the Chair of Sinology with a focus on Chinese Intellectual and Cultural History and FAU Vice President, this distinction is far more than just another research achievement. For the mathematician and sinologist, it constitutes the opportunity to realize a research project she has been contemplating for over 20 years. Originally, she focused predominantly on the history of mathematics in China.
C-STICS: The role of statistics in times of crisis
Her connection to statistics developed during her time in the business world, which she spent partly in China and Taiwan. “I was utterly fascinated by how numbers were handled there and how statistics were communicated,” she says. It is a topic that has remained close to her heart ever since. For her habilitation, she began researching how statistics as a discipline emerged in China. “Many people work on the history of mathematics in China. But statistics? That was virtually unheard of. I had to start from scratch.” Today, Andrea Bréard is considered one of the pioneers in this area.
Her unusual academic interests also shape the new research project “Chinese Statistics in Crisis“, or C-STICS for short. In this project, Andrea Bréard examines the role of statistics in times of crisis and explores how authoritarian systems work with numbers, govern through numbers, and how statistics themselves can reveal or even create crises.
Interaction between politics and mathematical methods
At the heart of C-STICS is the observation that times of crisis reshape statistics. Governments need numbers to make decisions. At the same time, crises often give rise to new methods and new ways of communicating about data. “We all experienced this during the COVID-19 pandemic,” says Andrea Bréard. “Suddenly, people were checking dashboards daily, tracking incidence rates, and debating political decisions based on numbers.”
Authoritarian regimes, too, depend on statistics in times of crisis. “Of course, communication channels are far more tightly controlled there,” she explains. “But even there, numbers play an enormous role in understanding and managing crises.” The FAU scholar is particularly interested in the interaction between politics and mathematical methods. “It’s often said that mathematics is purely objective and independent,” she notes. “But history clearly shows how strongly political systems can influence mathematical methods.”
Many people work on the history of mathematics in China. But statistics? That was virtually unheard of. I had to start from scratch.Prof. Dr. Andrea Bréard
Looking at the bigger picture
In her project, she will focus on China’s “long 20th century”, ranging from the Republican era through the early People’s Republic of China (PRC) period to the present under Xi Jinping. The project will explore four major thematic areas: Demography, health and social control, economics, and climate and crisis communication. To this end, Andrea Bréard is building a team at FAU consisting of sinologists and data scientists.
Working within a larger research network, their aim is to look at the bigger picture. “We want to develop a theoretical framework that can be used generally to examine the function, use and purpose of statistics in autocracies,” emphasizes Andrea Bréard.
Analyzing, questioning, and making Chinese statistical data visible
The project includes plans to establish a publicly accessible “China Data Observatory” portal, which is intended to analyze, critically question, and make Chinese statistical data visible. One thing is particularly important to Andrea Bréard: “We want to move away from the blanket statement that Chinese numbers are all manipulated anyway. What interests us more is how these numbers come about. We want to provide reference points for interpreting and contextualizing Chinese numbers more effectively.”
The fact that she can now realize this ambitious project at FAU is closely tied to her academic career to date. Andrea Bréard came to Erlangen from Paris with an Alexander von Humboldt Professorship, Germany’s most prestigious international research award. With the ERC Advanced Grant, her research now directly builds on her work to date. Or, as Andrea Bréard herself puts it: “Now I can finally explore in depth all the interdisciplinary questions that have preoccupied me for decades, and FAU offers outstanding structures for this.”